How FIFA World Rankings Are Calculated (Detailed Guide)

Every time FIFA updates its rankings, it sparks heated debates among fans, players, coaches, and pundits alike. Why did that team jump five spots?

How did another drop occur after winning two matches? And most importantly, how are FIFA rankings calculated?

If you’ve ever wondered how the system works or why it matters, you’re in the right place.

In this detailed guide, I will walk you through everything you need to know about FIFA rankings, what they are, how they’re calculated, why they matter, and where their strengths and weaknesses lie.

What Are FIFA Rankings?

FIFA rankings are an official system used to measure the relative strength and performance of national soccer teams. Managed by FIFA – the sport’s world governing body—these rankings help identify which teams are performing well on the international stage and provide a structured way to compare teams across continents.

Rankings are updated regularly (monthly, typically) and serve as a reference point for tournament seedings, qualification paths, and general team prestige.

The system applies only to men’s national teams; a separate ranking exists for women’s teams.

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A Brief History of FIFA Rankings

FIFA first introduced its ranking system in 1992. The goal was simple: to offer an objective way to evaluate the success of national teams, particularly for tournament seedings and match preparations.

Initially, the rankings were based on a fairly simple formula that primarily counted match results over eight years. However, the system faced criticism for being too simplistic and sometimes producing rankings that didn’t seem to reflect a team’s actual performance or quality.

In response, FIFA made several adjustments over the years, the most significant of which came in 2018, when it adopted a new system known as the “SUM” method (also referred to as the Elo method, based on the rating system originally developed for chess).

This shift aimed to make the rankings more reflective of current form, head-to-head strength, and match context, eliminating many of the flaws in the old model.

How FIFA Rankings Are Calculated (Post-2018)

FIFA’s current ranking system uses a points-based method that adds or subtracts points based on a team’s performance in each match. It’s not a simple matter of wins and losses – there are several key factors involved.

The Basic Formula

The formula FIFA uses is:

P = Pbefore + I × (W – We)

Where:

• P = new team points after the match
• Pbefore = points before the match
• I = importance of the match (a weighting factor)
• W = actual result of the match (1 for win, 0.5 for draw, 0 for loss)
• We = expected result (based on the difference in team ratings)

Let me break it down further.

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Key Factors That Influence FIFA Rankings

1. Match Result

This is the most obvious variable. A win increases your ranking points, a draw gives you fewer, and a loss can subtract points depending on expectations.

However, it’s not just about winning—who you beat matters a lot more than how you beat them.

2. Strength of Opponent

Defeating a stronger (higher-ranked) opponent earns you more points than beating a weaker one. Similarly, losing to a low-ranked team will cost you more points than losing to a top-tier team.

This keeps teams from padding their rankings by only playing easy opponents.

3. Match Importance (I Value)

Different types of matches carry different weights:

So if you win a World Cup match, that result has five times the impact of a win in a friendly match outside the FIFA calendar.

4. Expected Result (We)

FIFA’s algorithm also takes into account how likely you were to win the match. This expected value is calculated based on the rankings gap between the two teams before the match.

If a lower-ranked team pulls off an upset, they earn significantly more points than a higher-ranked team would for a routine win.

5. Home Advantage

FIFA’s formula gives a slight edge to teams playing away from home. Since winning on the road is statistically harder, away teams are rewarded slightly more in terms of ranking points.

Real-World Example

Let’s say Team A (ranked 10th) beats Team B (ranked 25th) in a World Cup match.

• Pbefore: 1650 points
• I: 50 (World Cup match)
• W: 1 (win)
• We: 0.70 (Team A was expected to win with a 70% chance)

P = 1650 + 50 × (1 – 0.70)
P = 1650 + 15
P = 1665

So, Team A gains 15 points. Team B would lose roughly the same number.

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Why Do FIFA Rankings Matter?

1. Tournament Seeding

Rankings heavily influence how teams are placed in groups for tournaments like the FIFA World Cup, continental championships, and qualifiers. Higher-ranked teams get seeded into better positions, avoiding early matchups against other strong teams.

For example, the top 7 teams in the FIFA rankings plus the host nation are typically placed in Pot 1 for the World Cup draw.

2. Qualification Impacts

While rankings don’t always determine who qualifies for major tournaments, they often affect the structure of the qualification rounds. Some confederations use rankings to seed teams into different qualification groups or even bypass early rounds.

3. Reputation and Funding

A high FIFA ranking boosts a national team’s reputation. That prestige can translate into more sponsorship deals, better media attention, and higher player morale. It also has indirect effects—governments and sponsors are more willing to invest in football programs when the team is doing well internationally.

4. Coaching Strategies and Player Motivation

National coaches pay close attention to FIFA rankings. It helps them set performance benchmarks and evaluate progress over time. Players, too, feel motivated to improve and maintain high rankings for national pride.

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The Pros of the FIFA Ranking System

While no system is perfect, FIFA’s current model has a lot going for it:

Objectivity: Using a points-based approach tied to real-world match results ensures a level of objectivity. You can’t climb the rankings with popularity or bias—you must win games that matter.

Transparency: The introduction of the Elo-based system in 2018 made the ranking process more transparent and understandable for analysts and fans.

Responsiveness: The algorithm is responsive to changes in form. If a team starts performing well and beating strong opponents, their ranking improves quickly. That reflects real-world performance.

Global Comparisons: With over 200 member associations, FIFA rankings offer a standardized way to evaluate and compare national teams across regions.

The Cons and Criticisms

Despite its strengths, the system isn’t flawless. Here are a few of the most common criticisms:

Overemphasis on Recent Performance: While it makes sense to prioritize current form, this sometimes leads to wild fluctuations. A team might have one good tournament and skyrocket in the rankings, only to crash out after a few bad games.

Limited Value of Friendlies: Since friendlies are of low importance, many top teams avoid scheduling competitive opponents in these matches. This can lead to less engaging games and rankings that don’t fully reflect a team’s potential.

Ranking Inflation: Smaller nations can sometimes climb the rankings by beating even weaker teams repeatedly. Although the formula tries to account for the opponent’s strength, critics argue that it’s still possible to game the system.

Unequal Match Schedules: Not all countries play the same number of matches each year. Teams from less active confederations may have fewer opportunities to earn ranking points.

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How Teams Strategize with Rankings

Believe it or not, some national federations strategically choose opponents and match types to optimize their ranking. This includes:

• Scheduling fewer friendlies to avoid the risk of losing low-impact games
• Choosing opponents who are ranked just above them to maximize potential point gain
• Prioritizing wins in competitive matches over experimental lineups in friendlies

It’s not exactly “gaming” the system, but it is savvy, especially when World Cup qualification or tournament seeding is at stake.

Final Thoughts: Should You Take FIFA Rankings Seriously?

Yes, but with a grain of salt.

FIFA rankings are a useful and fairly accurate indicator of national team strength, especially since the 2018 overhaul. They matter for seeding, prestige, and tournament organization. But like any statistical model, they have limitations.

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