In the summer transfer market of 2023, the footballing world has thus far observed an outrageous development: elite European footballers in their droves have begun moving to Saudi Arabia.
Big names then followed in—Karim Benzema, Neymar Jr, and others in quick succession following the footsteps of Cristiano Ronaldo, who had already taken headlines in December 2022 by making the move to Al-Nassr.
The buying spree of star power from all over the place into the Saudi Pro League (SPL) was unprecedented, to say the least. Did it mean Saudi Arabia, backed by its sovereign wealth fund, the Public Investment Fund (PIF), was going to upend the existing order in football?
The financial outlay was staggering.
The Saudi Pro League disbursed €977 million for transfer fees alone, trailing the Premier League‘s €1.29 billion in the same period.
The wage bill was reportedly over €1 billion, where CR7 takes home a sweet €185 million annually himself.
Now in 2024, the question is due: has this unprecedented investment paid its dues?
Attendance & Viewership In Saudi Pro League
As high-profile as so many football superstars were arriving en masse, the Saudi Pro League failed to attract fans to the stadium.
Cristiano Ronaldo’s Al-Nassr, for example, with the superstar in their ranks was attracting just 8,321 spectators in their home games, which was a 10% reduction from what was experienced the previous season.
Be that as these figures are, at best, workable figures more or less lower than the average figures seen in stadiums in the third league divisions in England and Germany, so is the second division in divisions other European leagues.
With the biggest names in football, the Saudi Pro League struggled to approximate the fanatic support enjoyed by the European football leagues -even the lower divisions.
Would I say I am surprised? Not really.
Yet the big revolution came in June 2023 when PIF acquired a 75% stake in four founding Clubs of the SPL—Al-Ahli, Al-Hilal, Al-Ittihad, and Al-Nassr—unleashing heretofore unbelievable financial resources in these Clubs and theoretically putting them in a position to be very competitive on the world scenario.
The statement from the PIF at the time of the takeover spoke of commercial opportunities and global competition.
While the investment was a much-needed injection of funds, it had the perhaps unforeseen result of unbalancing the league’s finances, with some teams struggling to keep up.
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The Consequences of Uneven Spending Power
It is very enlightening if one were to argue that nearly 90% of the transfer budgets last summer were controlled by a few clubs with deep pockets.
The other 14 teams had to make do with a tiny fraction of that amount. The huge imbalance makes you stop and think about what is happening with the game.
This has brought in a big imbalance in spending power, therefore, creating an uneven playing field in which only games featuring the big four teams get huge crowds.
Just look at the statistics: Al-Ahli’s attendance drops by over 60% when playing a non-PIF team (the BIG 4).
And it’s not just a question of attendance, either, as fans are similarly heavily directing their attention to matches with the BIG 4; this is a source of concern regarding the competitiveness of the league.
The ambitions of the Saudi Pro League were beyond Saudi Arabia alone; it had over 130 broadcast deals in the previous season. It wanted to make immense global expansion, but the coastal ends could not be reached.
In an English third-tier league, when Wrexham played Bolton Wanderers in League One, the viewership of the match was threefold as compared to a major Saudi Pro League clash between Al-Hilal and Al-Ittihad.
Viewer populations for SPL matches in the USA averaged 8,000 through Fox Sports, and this is despite the massive investments and attempts towards going global.
The Transfer Market
Paradoxically, SPL activity has slowed while the transfer window in 2024 has heated up. The outlay this season, at just €122 million, is a considerable drop from the spending splurge of last summer.
It is not only the fact that a smaller amount of money is being spent; the number of players making the move from European leagues also noses down to 8 against 79 during last season.
This dip makes emerging questions about the sustainability of the league’s long-term appeal and whether its financial model is workable. It would not be a new scenario, anyway. We have watched the script before in that terrible Chinese Super League.
One reason for that could be tight budgetary controls placed over the PIF clubs.
After last year’s big spending, these clubs may be nearing the end of their three-year budgets, forcing them to recognize the need to retain star players over acquiring new ones.
There were rumors of a mass exodus of players, but these have largely failed to materialize. However, Jordan Henderson’s January move to Ajax did point to some dissatisfaction with the Saudi experience.
Learning from History
The SPL has embarked in a direction paralleling the way of other Leagues that ventured into breaking the European football hegemony.
The North American Soccer League (NASL) in the 1970s and the Chinese Super League (CSL) in the 2010s both underwent exponential growth brought about by high-profile acquisitions and spending.
Of course, these leagues eventually floundered under economic commitments and the harsh outside economics reality.
Still, with stars such as Pelé and Franz Beckenbauer, the NASL folded in the mid-1980s due to overspending and over-expansion.
CSL growth was similarly stopped dead in its tracks by the COVID-19 pandemic and economic crisis in China, which saw several clubs go under, turning to more sustainable homegrown talent development.
This is a harbinger—a tale of caution—to the Saudi Pro League.
While the economy of Saudi Arabia is currently in good shape and relies heavily on oil revenues, any hiccups might put the future in jeopardy. The moneybags (PIF) investments, while impressive, are not immune to financial blow.
Vision 2030 and the Role of Sportswashing
The Saudi Pro League is just but a small part of a much larger vision—Vision 2030. The plan is run by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman; it is to wean the economy off its oil addiction and diversify its revenue sources.
However, there have been investments across the board into the world of sports: football, golf, tennis, Formula 1, and even professional wrestling.
The plan has not been without its critics: Saudi Arabia has been said to be trying to “sportswash” its reputation of a highly questionable human rights record with big sporting events and big-name signings in the world of sports.
Saudi Arabia is now participating in some high-level sports events by hosting the Club World Cup, and the Spanish Super Cup, and in the future, it has been given the status to host the 2027 AFC Asia Cup and the 2034 World Cup, which gives prominence to this country.
Though facing difficulties in its early years, the SPL and this project are part of the wider strategic policy to crystallize the footballing culture in the hope of reaching a competitive level in international football.
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Final Note
It’s easy to write off the Saudi Pro League as a flash in the pan or even take pleasure in its struggles, but that would be missing the bigger picture.
The SPL is but one small piece in a much grander vision for Saudi Arabia, a vision that extends well beyond this season or even the next decade.
But this is making up a football culture from scratch, and within that will be a road map quite clearly to 2034 and beyond.
Of course, there will come a series of challenges, from keeping fans engaged to economic ups and downs, but underestimating the determination behind the Saudi ambition, guided by this unusually clear plan of action, is not the thing to do.
Uncertain is the future of the SPL, but one thing is for sure: it has already started making waves, and this story is far from over.
